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针对海底管道服役环境复杂、失效路径与模式多样的问题，本文提出了一种集成多失效模式与事故演化过程的风险概率分析模型。首先通过风险因素、失效机制与安全屏障逻辑关系分析，建立海底管道失效-后果Bow-Tie模型；进而，依据模型映射规则构建了相应的贝叶斯网络模型，确定了节点状态与先验概率，以此剖析事故演化路径与关键影响事件；最后基于贝叶斯推断更新关键事件状态，实现海底管道事故发生概率的动态更新。研究结果表明，腐蚀穿孔失效是管道长期服役过程中的主要失效模式，第三方活动、腐蚀防护失效、材料缺陷及人员操作失误是诱发管道失效的关键事件，检测维护方案不当、清管不佳、应急停输系统失效及人员操作失误是导致安全屏障失效的关键事件，需对其加强监控及维护，以提升应急救援反应能力。
Abstract：The operational environment of subsea pipelines is complex,and the failure paths and modes are diverse. To address this issue,a comprehensive probabilistic risk analysis model integrating multiple failure modes and accident evolution processes is proposed.Initially,a failure-consequence Bow-Tie model for subsea pipelines was established by analyzing the logical relationships among risk factors, failure mechanisms, and safety barriers. Subsequently,a Bayesian Network model was constructed based on according to the mapping rules of the Bow-Tie model. Node states and prior probabilities were determined to analyze the accident evolution paths and identify key influencing events.Finally,the states of key events were dynamically updated through Bayesian inference,enabling dynamic updating of the probability of subsea pipeline accidents. The results indicate that corrosion-induced perforation is the dominant failure mode during the longterm operation of pipelines. Third-party activities,corrosion protection failure,material defects,and human operational errors are the key events leading to pipeline failure. In addition, inadequate inspection and maintenance strategies, poor cleaning practices,emergency shutdown system failures,and human operational errors are the critical events leading to safety barrier failures. Therefore,enhanced monitoring and maintenance of these critical events are required to improve emergency response capabilities.
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基本信息:
中图分类号:TP18;TE973.92
引用信息:
[1]李昱捷,邢莉莎,肖昕雨,等.基于Bow-tie和贝叶斯模型的海底管道动态风险评估[J].江汉大学学报(自然科学版)().
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目(52109416); 湖北省教育厅科学研究计划青年人才项目(Q20244412)
2026-03-24
2026-03-24
2026-03-24